Game Theory : Lecture 3 Tai - Wei Hu

Game Theory : Lecture 2

Game Theory : Lecture 4

Game Theory : Lecture 1

Outline • Introduction – history of game theory – game theory in crisis – theory of rational behavior • Expected utility theory – standard expected utility theory – Savage's theory of subjective probability – the frequentist approach

Game Theoretic Decidability and Undecidability∗

We study the possibility of prediction/decision making in a finite 2—person game with pure strategies, following the Nash(-Johansen) noncooperative solution theory. We adopt the epistemic logic KD as the base logic to capture individual decision making from the viewpoint of logical inference. Since some infinite regresses naturally arise in this theory, we use a fixed-point extension EIR of KD ...

Provisional Beliefs and Paradigm Shifts

Bayesian inference has the advantage of dynamic consistency, but the drawback of rigidity. When a decision-maker’s initial model fails a hypothesis test, he may wish to form a new model, violating Bayes’ rule. We show that if such “paradigm shifts” are rare, he will be “approximately” dynamically consistent. More specifically, we show that in our setting dynamic consistency is equivalent to the...